Earthquake map

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Funnies for after the earthquake

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February 22nd M6.3 Christchurch quake

At 12:51PM local time on 22nd February 2011, a M6.3 earthquake hit Christchurch at a depth of only 5km and caused a huge amount of damage and significant loss of life. Here is a list of my tweets concerning this earthquake. Geological details here. Summary map here.

My parents are OK and uninjured, and every relative we know of in Christchurch is OK and uninjured. But I am still having deep trouble processing the notion that the eventual death toll is estimated to be between 100-300 people: 55 official death notifications to next-of-kin so far, 20 waiting in the morgue to be IDed. (Update 2011/02/26: death toll currently stands at 146 with over 200 still missing.)

There but for the grace of god go I…

The picture for my parents’ house is moderately grim, because they were so close to the epicentre (within 3km according to preliminary reports) of yesterday’s shallow quake and to the various shallow aftershock epicentres. Concrete block cladding on one wall of the house came away. TThe TV fell upside down. Shelves came off walls. The piano moved. A heavy planter box outside migrated across the deck. Pretty much everything inside the house is smashed up and on the floor, including crockery and art pieces. Broken glass is a problem too, including multiple large broken plate glass windows. Fortunately, the master bedroom and kitchen were not damaged, apart from everything being thrown onto the floor. There are large scary cracks in the property, which got wider during aftershocks. At least the vehicles seem to have been left relatively unscathed. Finding petrol or cash or food staples will be tough though, as many businesses are out of supplies.

My parents currently have no utilities – no water, no sewerage, and no electricity. Some estimates say it may take up to five weeks (no, that is not a typo!) to restore their electricity because some key transformer assets were damaged in the quake. The landlines seem OK and ditto with mobile phones, but people are still being asked to stay off phones as networks are congested and some emergency calls are not getting through first time. We communicated yesterday pretty much entirely by text message (SMS).

O, my ancestral home!!

My brothers were magnificent, and neither of them lives in Christch. One brother, trained in Search And Rescue, drove down from the Southern Alps and was there super quick to support Mum and Dad, doing an absolutely stunning job in making makeshift repairs to the house as well as looking after them so expertly. The other brother drove down soon after from the North Island bringing a generator and plywood with him and some tools. Bloody brilliant. Aunty and Uncle were also wonderful.

Update: Mum and Dad had to move out for safety reasons – the property may be unstable. Many people in their and surrounding areas (Mt Pleasant, Redcliffs, Sumner, etc.) have been evacuated with far less notice than Mum and Dad had – so full marks to my brother’s civil engineering expertise in sizing up the situation so quickly. They were able to retrieve vital possessions but had to leave behind a great deal. Anything they can buy got left in the house.

Conclusion: everyone should have at least one civil engineer and one SAR-trained person in the family!

By the way, normalizing the 9/11 death toll for population would amount to approximately 39 dead NZers, so this Christchurch quake disaster is a much bigger hit for NZ proportionally than 9/11 was for the USA. Stocks for reinsurance companies worldwide immediately fell after the quake, as did the NZ dollar and the NZ stock market. JP Morgan has estimated the total damage from this Feb.22 quake as sixteen billion dollars (NZD). Apparently this quake has pretty much cleaned out the EQC fund, and Government may impose a levy to refill the coffers.

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Wireless technology joke

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Snow bomb

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PZ Myers is my hero

In another life I will be as outspoken and eloquent as PZ Myers – I love his Pharyngula blog, for so many reasons. Here is one example, which I have copied and pasted (VERBATIM, of course!) because I so thoroughly agree with it.

“Don’t politicize this tragedy!”

Posted on: January 10, 2011 9:52 AM, by PZ Myers

I’m seeing a lot of email complaining about my response to the Giffords shooting. Here’s just a representative sampling.

You saw fit to use our pain to win political points. Here is my question to you – What if the killer was not a conservative? At least one report describes him as left-wing. His posted video does show any clear political affiliation, and his reading list was from across the spectrum. The local tea party group has denounced the killings, and leaders from across our state have spoken in one voice.

As someone who usually enjoys reading your blog, I was a little dismayed to read your “wild guess” that the Arizona shooter is a teabagger who listens to a lot of AM radio in your post “We have our own barbarian subculture”. I do not think it fair or helpful to immediately link a tragedy with one’s political opponents based on a “wild guess”.

And here’s what I think.

Madness.

What we have here is an attempted assassination of a politician by an insane crank at a political event, in a state where the political discourse has been an unrelenting howl of eliminationist rhetoric and characterization of anyone to the left of Genghis Khan as a traitor and enemy of the state…and now, when six (including a nine year old girl) lie dead and another fourteen are wounded, now suddenly we’re concerned that it is rude and politicizing a tragedy to point out that the right wing has produced a toxic atmosphere that pollutes our politics with hatred and the rhetoric of violence?

Screw that. Now is the time to politicize the hell out of this situation. The people who are complaining are a mix of lefty marshmallows whose first reaction to the fulfillment of right-wing fantasies by a lunatic is to drop to their knees and beg forgiveness for thinking ill of people who paint bullseyes on their political opponents, and right wing cowards who are racing to their usual tactic of attacking their critics to shame them into silence. This is NOT the time to back down and suddenly find it embarrassing to point out that right-wing pundits make a living as professional goads to insanity.

I have to point out this cartoon by Mike Stanfill. It’s perfect.

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Now look at the first few comments there. It’s people complaining that the cartoon is in bad taste! Good grief, have you people ever actually listened to Rush Limbaugh or Michael Savage or looked at Sarah Palin’s campaign strategy? I say again, madness.

Stanfill has also collected a short list of brief comments — and I agree with every one of them.

If a Detroit Muslim put a map on the web with crosshairs on 20 pols, then 1 of them got shot, where would he be sitting right now? Just asking. – Michael Moore

A physician cannot treat an illness s/he willfully refuses to diagnose. Violent political rhetoric is not fault of “both sides.” – Tom Tomorrow

Inspiring that our media pundits are so quick to reach for “everyone’s to blame” when no conservative events have been terrorized by gunmen. – Jeffrey Feldman

Weird: rightwingers say movies, video games affect behavior — but real world violent rhetoric from leaders & radio talkers have NO impact! – Tom Tomorrow

Jared Lougnner: drug arrests, too crazy for Army or for college or anything else, but getting a legal gun? No problem. – Tom Tomorrow

I find it abhorrent that Sarah Palin would stoke the coals of extremism with dangerous messaging, then delete it when something bad happens. – Jason Pollock

Sure, Sarah Palin didn’t pull the trigger. But then, neither did Charles Manson. – auntbeast

Christina Taylor Green was Born on September 11, 2001, and killed today by terrorist fuckheads in Arizona. Irony much? – geeksofdoom

Sarah Palin rummages online frantically erasing her rabble-rousing Tweets like a Stalinist trimming non-persons out of photos. – Roger Ebert

I’ll say this, if your first instinct after hearing about a tragedy is to scrub yr websites, you have a problem as a political movement. – digby56

CNN’s Dana Bash says “this could be a wake-up call.” THIS … ? The whole Tea Party, carrying guns to rallies WASN’T?? – hololio2

Teaparty asses have been asking for this to happen, and how they’re pissed off that we’re calling them out on it. – TLW3

STOP SAYING”BOTH PARTIES”!! The Left has not been advocating Violence. @CNN assholes. – YatPundit

Do not sit there cowering, trying to make excuses for teabaggers and violent morons. This is supposed to be the part where you stand up, look at the shouters on the other side, and tell them, “This is wrong, and this is the harm you bring to our country.” Instead, I see a rush to postures of submission.

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Cute Alert: polar bear cub high five

From http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1344316/Baby-bear-waves-camera-crippled-mother-beats-odds-birth-Alaska.htmlarticle-1344316-0CA67CBA000005DC-258_634x659.jpg >

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Guardian: Abandon New Year's resolutions, positive thinking, and other silly ideas

This is a reblog: the content is not mine nor do I take an iota of credit for it. The reason I’m including it here in full is that it’s one of the best essays I’ve read in at least a year.

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/jan/01/how-to-better-person-2011

by Oliver Burkeman in The Guardian

Our new year issue kicks off with advice on how to be a better person in 2011 (and it’s not what you think)

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Illustration Photograph: John Holcroft

New Year’s Day, when you stop to consider it, hasn’t been very well thought through: the day traditionally assigned for the turning over of new leaves is also the day many of us are far more likely than usual to be waking up hungover, or at least seriously late, and generally without the energy for launching effortful new self-improvement projects. The gym’s probably closed; new year resolutions rarely work out anyway; and besides, today marks the 30th anniversary of the achievement of self-government by the island nation of Palau, which is surely as good a reason as any to indulge in further alcohol-fuelled celebration. Then again, on some level, who doesn’t want to be a bit happier, more productive and generally a better person? Allow us to suggest a few modest, down-to-earth, evidence-backed ideas for 2011 that might actually work…

Abandon your new year resolutions – today

If you’ve made any new year resolutions, steal a march on the rest of the world by abandoning them today, rather than waiting a week or two for the moment when everyone else’s will inevitably collapse in a quagmire of failed hopes, self-reproach and packets of Pringles. The lure of making a “complete fresh start” can be hard to resist, and gleaming-eyed self-help gurus pander to that urge. In fact, aiming for across-the-board change – to get fitter, eat better, spend more time with the family and less time playing Angry Birds, all at the same time – is exactly the wrong way to change habits. Willpower is a unitary, depletable resource, which means investing energy in any one such goal will leave less remaining for the others, so your resolutions will, in effect, be fighting each other. Far better to aim for one new habit every couple of months or, better yet, to manipulate your surroundings so as to harness the power of inertia, so you needn’t spend your precious reserves of willpower at all. (It’s infinitely easier to watch less television when you don’t have one, or to use your credit card less when it’s locked in a cupboard.) Making things automatic, not consciously and continually striving hard to be better, is the key here, as Alfred North Whitehead recognised back in 1911: “It is a profoundly erroneous truism… that we should cultivate the habit of thinking of what we are doing,” he wrote. “The precise opposite is the case. Civilisation advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them.”

Stop looking for your soulmate

Relationship gurus expend enormous amounts of energy debating whether “opposites attract” or, conversely, whether “birds of a feather flock together” – largely, it seems, without stopping to reflect on whether relying on cheesy proverbs might be, more generally, a bad way to think about the complexities of human attraction. Should you look for a partner whose characteristics match yours, or complement yours? The conclusion of the Pair Project, a long-term study of married couples by the University of Texas, is… well, neither, really. “Compatibility”, whether you think of it as similarity or complementarity, just doesn’t seem to have much to do with a relationship’s failure or success, according to the project’s founder, Ted Huston: the happiness of a marriage just isn’t much correlated with how many likes, dislikes or related characteristics a couple does or doesn’t share. Compatibility does play one specific role in love, he argues: when couples start worrying about whether they’re compatible, it’s often the sign of a relationship in trouble. “We’re just not compatible” really means, “We’re not getting along.” “Compatibility” just means things are working out. It simply renames the mystery of love, rather than explaining it.

According to the US psychologist Robert Epstein, that’s because a successful relationship is almost entirely built from within. (He cites evidence from freely entered arranged marriages, arguing that they work out more frequently than the unarranged kind.) All that’s really required is two people committed to giving things a shot. Spending years looking for someone with compatible qualities may be – to evoke another cheesy proverb – a classic case of putting the cart before the horse.

Overhaul your information diet (but don’t starve)

We’ve been worrying about information overload for millennia. “The abundance of books is distraction,” complained Seneca, who never had to worry about his Facebook privacy options (although he was ordered to commit ritual suicide by bleeding himself to death, so it’s swings and roundabouts). But it’s been a year of unprecedentedly panicky pronouncements on what round-the-clock digital connectedness might be doing to our brains – matched only by the ferocity with which the internet’s defenders fight back. Yet as one team of neuroscientists pointed out, writing in the journal Neuron, we’ve been talking in misleading generalities. “Technology” isn’t good or bad for us, per se; neither is “the web”. Just as television can have positive or negative effects – Dora The Explorer seems to aid children’s literacy and numeracy, a study has suggested, while Teletubbies seems not to – what may well matter more is what we’re consuming online. The medium isn’t the only message.

The best way to impose some quality control on your digital life isn’t to quit Twitter, Facebook and the rest in a fit of renunciation, but to break the spell they cast. Email, social networking and blogs all resemble Pavlovian conditioning experiments on animals: we click compulsively because there might or might not be a reward – a new email, a new blog post – waiting for us. If you can schedule your email checking or web surfing to specific times of day, that uncertainty will vanish: new stuff will have accumulated, so there will almost always be a “reward” in store, and the compulsiveness should fade. Or use software such as the Firefox add-in Leechblock , which limit you to fixed-time visits to the sites you’re most addicted to. Can you, as the blogger Paul Roetzer suggests, make it a habit to unplug for four hours a day? Three? Two? What matters most isn’t the amount of time, but who’s calling the shots: the ceaseless data stream, or you. Decide when to be connected, then decide to disconnect. Alternative metaphor: it’s a one-on-one fistfight between you and Mark Zuckerberg for control of your brain. Make sure you win.

Self-improvement: track your personal data

It’s been rather disorienting, over recent years, to be the kind of anally retentive geek who enjoys devising personal logbooks to record, say, how one uses one’s time, or spends one’s money: now everybody seems to be doing it. The “self-tracking” movement has been boosted enormously by iPhone apps and similar software that makes it easy to store and analyse personal data: see, for example, WaterWorks (for monitoring your water-drinking), FoodTrackerPro (which does what you’d imagine), the time-logging application TimeJot or the Zeo sleep-monitoring machine, which purports to tell you how much high-quality deep sleep you’re racking up each night; the Looxcie is a tiny camera, worn on the ear like a Bluetooth headset, that will record video of your whole day, though goodness knows when you’ll find the time to sift through it. For much more – arguably too much more – see The Quantified Self.

All this can be taken too far. But in moderation, the benefits are twofold. First, you can exploit the Hawthorne Effect – the way the mere fact of monitoring your behaviour can influence it to change in a positive direction. Second, you can analyse the data you collect to identify patterns you might otherwise never have noticed. Be prepared for a shock, though: you’re almost certainly working much less, spending more and eating more poorly than you imagine. Approach personal data “with gentleness rather than judgment”, advises Sierra Black at GetRichSlowly.org, or you’re liable to throw in the towel to avoid confronting such truths. Remember, friends and colleagues who claim to work 12-hour days, never eat junk food or exercise for an hour a day almost certainly aren’t being entirely accurate; they’ve just never tracked themselves properly.

Volunteer (even though David Cameron wants you to)

It’s frequently tempting to ignore centuries-old advice on happiness in favour of cutting-edge research and clever new tricks. It’s also tempting to resist doing things the coalition government wants you to do in order to help them cut government services. Yet all of this is unfair on volunteering, since the all but incontrovertible truth is that donating your time (and, to a lesser extent, your money) is one of the most reliable short cuts to happiness, reduced stress levels and enhanced physical health. Studies in the UK have shown correlations between high levels of “informal voluntary activity” and better health, higher GCSE grades and lower burglary levels; coupled with laboratory studies on the hormone oxytocin, which causes the “helper’s high”, it seems likely that volunteering helps cause all these benefits, rather than just occurring in the same places. The most dependable sources of happiness, as the Harvard psychologist Tal Ben-Shahar puts it, are those that lie at “the intersection of pleasure and meaning”, and volunteering sits squarely at that crossroads.

Reject positive thinking

These are troubled times for the leading proponents of positive thinking (though presumably they’re not feeling glum about it). The social critic Barbara Ehrenreich struck a chord, in her book Smile Or Die, when she argued that our current financial crises may be at least partly attributable to a blindly optimistic, failure-is-impossible ethos in the financial services industry. A Canadian study suggested positive affirmations – such as “I am a lovable person!” – actually have a negative effect on the moods of people with low self-esteem, who you might have thought would benefit from them the most. Meanwhile, the high-profile guru James Arthur Ray, a star of the movie version of The Secret, awaits trial on manslaughter charges in connection with the deaths of three participants in an October 2009 “sweat lodge” ceremony.

According to practitioners of the increasingly popular approach of “acceptance and commitment therapy”, one of several philosophies opposed to conventional positive thinking, neither positive thinking nor negative thinking is a particularly useful goal: a better plan is to learn to fixate less on the whole matter of cultivating this or that mental state. That’s reflected in the timeless and exceedingly effective anti-procrastination mantra that “motivation follows action”, not the other way around. Wait until you feel like doing something, and you could be waiting for ever. “Inspiration is for amateurs,” the artist Chuck Close is fond of saying. “I just get to work.”

Make dinner, make furniture, make an effort

“The Ikea effect” seems an inappropriate name for the notion that we derive greater enjoyment from things we’ve worked harder to create. You can see the rationale of the researchers who coined it – there’s a unique pleasure to successful self-assembly – but they’d clearly had only atypically trouble-free encounters with Billy bookshelves. Yet, more generally, this cognitive bias is now well-established, and provides another persuasive explanation for why great material wealth has such a small impact on happiness: the effortlessness of having everything fall into your lap is somehow fundamentally unsatisfying. The neuroscience writer Jonah Lehrer argues that the same applies to making dinner, at least by analogy with experiments on mice, who develop long-standing preferences for snacks they’ve had to labour harder to obtain. Combine this with the argument made by Matt Crawford in his book The Case For Working With Your Hands, that an exclusive focus on intangible “knowledge work” leaves many of us feeling disconnected from reality, and you have a persuasive argument for doing more DIY, cooking more dinners and generally doing more making.

Don’t take frugality too far

Being bombarded daily by messages of financial catastrophe probably makes it easier to save money and avoid self-sabotaging shopping splurges. But it’s also an invitation to fall into the psychological trap known as “hyperopia”, or the opposite of shortsightedness: the tendency to deny oneself present-moment pleasures to a degree one subsequently comes to regret. Experiments by the economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky show that people suffer short-term regret when they choose pleasure over work, but once a few years have passed, the situation flips: looking back over the years, people tend to feel far more regret at passed-up opportunities for pleasure, not work. Personal finance writers love to preach the benefits of cutting back on daily hedonistic expenditures – the overpriced latte, the breakfast croissant. But the most efficient way to save money, obviously, is to cut out big expenditures, not small ones. And if small pleasures deliver a reliable daily mood boost, they may be better value, in terms of their cost-to-happiness ratio, than more pricey occasional purchases such as gadgets or clothes. It’s all too easy to mistake the daily feeling of self-denial for the idea that you’re making significant savings, when in truth the two may not be closely related.

Befriend your friends’ friends

High on the list of psychological insights that seem far too obvious to bother thinking deeply about is the phenomenon sociologists call “triadic closure”: the way people tend to befriend the friends of their friends. There seems to be something especially satisfying about closing a friendship triad – when A and B, who are both already friends with C, become friends with each other. (Facebook’s Friend Finder is mainly just a mechanism for achieving this.) One reason is simply the greater likelihood of overlapping interests. But as the happiness blogger Gretchen Rubin points out, there’s an additional explanation: when you close a triad, you’re helping to knit a dense social network in a way that doesn’t happen with simpler friendship chains, where A is friends with B is friends with C is friends with D. “It’s both energising and comforting to feel that you’re building not just friendships, but a social network,” she says. Moreover, friends of friends are much easier to meet in the first place, and maintaining the link requires less effort, since you’re probably going to keep running into them anyway. If you want to rejuvenate your social life, then, consider keeping an eye out for triads. (Warning: not Triads.)

Creativity: make one small change to your workspace

Evidence continues to accumulate for a curious psychological effect that’s either massively dispiriting or rather encouraging, depending on how you look at it: the way we’re influenced to an extraordinary degree by subtle details of our surroundings we might never consciously notice. (In one experiment, the mere presence of a briefcase, a symbol of corporate life, in a roomful of participants caused people to behave more competitively and less cooperatively.) The downside of this, of course, is how much the current configuration of your home or office might be holding you back without your realising it. The upside is you can exploit the phenomenon. Even the slightest hint of greenery – even as computer wallpaper – appears to aid concentration. High ceilings are associated with abstract, unconstrained thinking, claim researchers at the University of Minnesota, lower ones with more focused tasks. So switch rooms when you need to, if you can. Or step outside. If you work from home, or otherwise have plenty of control over your office layout, consult the compelling if frequently envy-inducing blog From The Desk Of, where writers and artists reveal their workspaces.

Instead, or as well, consider working standing up. According to a rash of news reports last year, based on a handful of studies, too much sitting down is the single most unhealthy, and potentially life-shortening, activity in which most of us engage. Expensive standing desks are available; for instructions on building your own, see bit.ly/gSBwPv. Perhaps you’ll become the next Philip Roth, who famously works at a lectern. It’s true that Donald Rumsfeld did, too. But we really don’t need to dwell on that.

oliver.burkeman@guardian.co.uk

twitter.com/oliverburkeman

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I love the way MetService aids the Santa myth for kids!

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Heavy rain warning

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